The yield curve is the connection between the short and long-term interest rates of US Treasury fixed-income securities. When short-term interest rates surpass long-term interest rates, the yield curve inverts. Under standard conditions, the yield curve is not inverted because debt with longer maturities typically bears higher interest rates than debt with shorter maturities. An inverted yield curve is a notable and unusual economic event since it indicates that the short term is riskier than the long term. In this article, we'll explain how it arises, what it's said to mean, its history, its significance, and more.
What Causes Inverted Yield Curves?
As fears of an imminent downturn grow, investors try to purchase long Treasury bonds on the idea that they can provide a sanctuary from declining equity markets, capital preservation, and the possibility for value gain as interest rates decrease. Yields can fall below short-term rates due to the rotation to long maturities, resulting in an inverted yield curve.
What Does an Inverted Yield Curve Indicate?
Historically, an inverted yield curve has been seen as a warning sign of an impending economic downturn. When short-term interest rates surpass long-term interest rates, market sentiment implies that the long-term outlook is bleak and that long-term fixed-income yields will continue to decrease. This stance has lately been doubted, as foreign purchases of US Treasury securities have produced an intense and persistent demand for assets backed by US government debt. Many say that when this happens, the rules of supply and demand, rather than an imminent economic downturn, allow lenders to entice purchasers without requiring higher interest rates.
The Inverted Yield Curve's History
Inverted yield curves have been uncommon, thanks to longer-than-average durations between recessions since the early 1990s. Most recently, in August 2006, the Fed boosted short-term interest rates in reaction to overheated equities, real estate, and mortgage markets, resulting in an inverted yield curve. The yield curve inversion occurred 14 months before the high of the S&P 500 in October 2007 and 16 months before the official start of the recession in December 2007. Then again, in 2019, the yield curve inverted, raising fears of another collapse. The COVID-19 pandemic did cause a global recession in early 2020, but no economists believe that the yield curve could have predicted the pandemic. The COVID-19 fall swiftly recovered to new record highs through 2022, and the yield curve's structure has stayed unpredictable, with some forecasting another inversion in 2022.
The Effect on Consumers
In addition to affecting investors, an inverted yield curve affects consumers. For example, homebuyers who use adjustable-rate mortgages have interest-rate schedules that are changed regularly based on short-term interest rates. When short-term interest rates are more significant than long-term interest rates, payments tend to climb. Another example of effects can be found with credit lines which are affected similarly. In both circumstances, customers must devote more of their income to debt servicing. This diminishes disposable income and harms the overall economy.
Can You Rely On an Inverted Yield Curve to Predict a Downturn?
While the yield curve may offer some guidance in the general direction of the economy, it has a history of producing false positives that do not end in recession. Oftentimes, even if the yield curve correctly predicts an upcoming economic recession, investment portfolios may have already fallen, diminishing the value of the signal. When building your financial plan, it is best to focus on the items that you can control. These include portfolio allocations, risk tolerances, and aligning your investments properly to the time horizon of your goal. Instead of wasting time and energy attempting to predict the future, build your portfolio on long-term thinking and principles rather than short-term market swings.
Schedule A Consultation with an Experienced Financial Advisor
We hope the information in this article has helped you better understand an inverted yield curve. Furthermore, we hope it has helped bring into perspective how an investor must balance how much attention they pay to market trends and how much effort they put into long-term planning. If you’re to begin taking that financial planning balance to the next level, we’re here to help. Our mission is to help you develop, implement, and monitor a strategy designed to address your individual situation to ensure all your investments are setting you up for a path of financial success. Contact us today at (304) 746 7977 to schedule a meeting with one of our experienced financial advisors or schedule online: https://calendly.com/fourthavenuefinancial/introductory-zoom.
Securities are offered through J.W. Cole Financial, Inc. (JWC) Member FINRA / SIPC. Advisory Services are offered through J.W. Cole Advisors, Inc. (JWCA). Fourth Avenue Financial and JWC/ JWCA are unaffiliated entities.
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